Well-placed analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released a new research note suggesting that Apple’s electric car specifications are yet to be finalized and that he doesn’t expect a release until 2025-2027 “at the earliest.”
The conversation around the Apple Car has hit fever-pitch over the last few weeks, with Reuters reporting that Tim Cook’s company is looking to push the electric vehicle into production by 2024.
Now, presumably on the back of new information and analysis of an ever-changing market, Kuo has revised an earlier release prediction but also suggests that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Apple Car didn’t make an appearance until 2028, or beyond:
However, our latest survey indicates that the current development schedule of Apple Car is not clear, and if development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV/self-driving market and Apple’s high-quality standards, we would not be surprised if Apple Car’s launch schedule is postponed to 2028 or later.
Kuo is also reminding investors about Apple’s occasional failures to penetrate new markets and to be wary when considering investing in Apple Car-related stocks. The research note goes on to use HomePod and HomePod Mini as examples of Apple not being able to garner success in a new market. But let’s keep things in perspective; there are huge differences between smart speakers and electric vehicles.
[…]Apple failed to enter the smart speaker market. The demand for HomePod and HomePod mini were lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models had been temporarily suspended. The competition in the EV/self-driving car market is fiercer than that for smart speakers, so we think it’s perilous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed.
As it stands, there is a renewed interest in Apple’s electric vehicle project but it seems that the company is still a million miles away from any type of reveal, let alone a launch. With that said, the United Kingdom has recently become the first nation within the G7 to ban the sale of petroleum and diesel-based vehicles by the year 2030. That move alone all-but guarantees that we are going to see a lot of investment and movement in the electric-vehicle space in the next ten years. Apple will want to be a major part of that movement.
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