Apple Watch will, according to company CEO Tim Cook, begin shipping from April, and since we’re now closing in on that launch period, the guesswork has well and truly begun about what the device will offer, how many units it could shift, and generally, how consumers will take to the much-hyped wearable. No matter what the subject or rumor, there always, always seems to be one analyst whose calculations stick out like a sore thumb, and on the topic of the Apple Watch, an equities research expert has suggested that there’ll be 100,000 apps ready at launch.
We do know that many developers have been eager to get on board with Apple Watch, and also, that the company has been inviting many of these devs to its Cupertino headquarters recently for help in finalizing their respective projects. But 100,000 seems an astronomically high number, especially considering that it took the iOS App Store well over a year to reach this threshold, but according to Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research, that’s the kind of selection that early Apple Watch adopters should be expecting.
His guesstimate is not complete conjecture – he has attended half a dozen Apple WatchKit hacking events over the past few months – and since he’s a better insight on the subject than most, it would be a little dismissive to completely ignore his predictions.
Still, the 100k mark does seem a tad ambitious, although his estimates on unit sales tie in quite nicely with the predictions of others. He believes that Apple Watch will shift 42 million units by the end of this year, and if this were to be achieved, then it would exceed the total first-year sales of the original iPhone and iPad combined.
Chowdhry is of the opinion that Apple Watch will eventually sway almost all iPhone users, with the sheer convenience of features like notifications likely to be the determining factor. He also doesn’t believe that the $349 starting price is an issue, since, with an average of 100 apps installed per Watch user, “the consumer is getting 100 devices for $350 ..i.e. $3.50 per device.”
Personally, I can’t see there being 100,000 apps ready for April, but if Apple Watch does take off in the way that some are suggesting, 42 million sales in one year is certainly attainable.
What do you make of this; do you think Apple Watch will succeed or flunk? Share your thoughts below!